Commercial Forecaster Agent Skill

Use when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, NRR projection, or commit/best-case/pipe-only board…

Context cost
10.2k tokensestimated from the bundle, loaded when it triggers
Bundle
8 files · 79.8 kB3 scripts among them — read before you run
Licence
MITthe author’s own terms
Last change
—v2.8.0
Servers it uses
Noneruns standalone

What it does

Use when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, NRR projection, or commit/best-case/pipe-only board number — especially when the CRO needs to walk the board through funnel math + cohort ARR + per-stage conversion assumptions without the theatre of a single undefended number. Decomposes pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers; projects cohort-level NRR/GRR to surface leaky cohorts before they show up in the consolidated number; scores per-stage funnel confidence so soft-floor stages get treated differently from high-confidence ones.

What this skill changes about the agent has not been set out here as a list. Its SKILL.md, shown below, says it in the author’s own words.

arrbookingscohortcommercialforecastingfunnelgrrnrr

The skill itself

A skill is instructions the model reads, so you can see what you are getting: below is the start of its SKILL.md. The front matter loads with every session, the body loads when the skill triggers, and the whole file comes with the install.

SKILL.md12.2 kB · preview
--- name: commercial-forecaster version: 2.8.0 author: claude-code-skills license: MIT tags: [commercial, forecasting, bookings, arr, nrr, grr, cohort, funnel, pipeline-math] compatible_tools: [claude-code, codex-cli, cursor, antigravity, opencode, gemini-cli] ---
11# commercial-forecaster
12
13## Purpose
14
15Help Commercial leaders answer three questions at the forecast moment:
16
171. **What's the commit / best-case / pipe-only number?** (3-tier bookings forecast with disclosed assumptions)
182. **Which cohorts are leaking, and is the consolidated NRR hiding the leak?** (per-cohort NRR/GRR projection over horizon)
193. **Which funnel stages are reliable, and which are statistical noise?** (per-stage coefficient-of-variation confidence band)
20
21The skill recommends **three forecast numbers + an explicit assumption block**. The CRO presents the number, the board sees the assumptions, the theatre dies.
22
23## When to use
24
25- Building the quarterly bookings forecast for the board
26- Preparing the QBR forecast where the CFO will ask "what's the commit, what's the best-case, what's the pipe-only"
27- Projecting ARR for next 4-8 quarters using cohort retention data
28- Suspecting a consolidated NRR number is hiding a leaky recent cohort
29- Pipeline-coverage is shrinking and you need to know which stages are still trustworthy
This is a preview of SKILL.md. Download or install the skill to get the whole thing.
In the file
SKILL.md1,676 words
Files8
LicenceMIT
Why you can read it

Nothing in a skill executes. The client loads the text and the model follows it, so a skill can be audited the way a runbook is — by reading it.

What it costs in context

Skills are not billed by the call. They are paid for in context: every token the instructions occupy is a token your code, your diff and your conversation cannot use. Here is what this one takes and when it takes it.

≈310
always loaded
The name and description, so the model knows the skill exists and when to reach for it.
9,865
on trigger
The instruction body and 7 supporting files, read only when the skill fires.
5.1%
of a 200k window
Ten skills this size would take about 51% of the window before you open a file.
050k100k150k200k context window

10.2k tokens, estimated from the bundle at four bytes to the token, held for the rest of the session once it triggers. Heavy. Teams tend to install this one per project rather than globally, and load it only when the job comes up.

Servers bill, skills cost

A server charges by the month. A skill charges once per session, in context, and then keeps charging it for as long as the session lives.

Before and after

The same question, put to the same model twice: once as it comes, and once with these instructions loaded.

No worked example has been published for this skill yet.

The procedure it runs

The procedure has not been set out here step by step. It is in the body of its SKILL.md: the start of it is shown above, and the whole file comes with the install.

Prose, not code

These steps are written for a model to follow, not executed by a runtime. It can still be told to skip one, and it will say so when it does.

Servers it uses

None. This skill calls no MCP servers at all.

Everything it needs is in the instructions, so it works in a project with nothing connected — the model reads the file and changes how it works with what it can already reach.

Its SKILL.md does not declare which tools it asks the agent for, so what it touches is whatever the instructions themselves ask for — read them before you install it.

What it asks for
Writes filesnot declared
Network accessnot declared

This SKILL.md carries no allowed-tools line, so neither is declared. A skill grants no permissions of its own — it can only ask for tools your client already has.

What it will not do

Every skill is narrow, and the useful ones say where they stop. These are the jobs this one is the wrong tool for.

What this skill is not for has not been published here. Nothing is implied by that: it is a section the author has not filled in.

What is in the bundle

8 files, 79.8 kB on disk. Mostly text — the instructions the model reads — with 3 scripts in it that your client would run only if the instructions tell it to.

  • SKILL.md12.2 kB
  • assets/forecast_intake_template.md6.1 kB
  • references/cohort_analysis_canon.md6.6 kB
  • references/forecast_anti_patterns.md8.7 kB
  • references/saas_forecasting_canon.md7.1 kB
  • scripts/bookings_forecaster.py18.8 kB
  • scripts/cohort_arr_projector.py12.5 kB
  • scripts/funnel_confidence_scorer.py7.8 kB
What is not in it

A skill installs nothing and depends on nothing: it is a folder your client reads. This one carries 3 scripts beside the text, so the bundle is 8 files you can review in full before installing. The MIT licence covers the templates and examples as well as the instructions.

Install

Installing copies the bundle into your project. Nothing runs at install time — the files sit on disk until the model reads them.

# Commercial Forecaster · 10.2k tokens when loaded · macOS, Linux mkdir -p .claude/skills && t=$(mktemp -d) && curl -fsSL -o "$t/bundle.tar.gz" https://mcprush.com/api/skills/sakibmouin-commercial-forecaster/bundle.tar.gz && tar -xzf "$t/bundle.tar.gz" -C "$t" && [ -d "$t/commercial-forecaster" ] && { [ ! -e .claude/skills/commercial-forecaster ] || { mv .claude/skills/commercial-forecaster "$t/.previous" && echo "Previous copy moved to $t/.previous"; }; } && mv "$t/commercial-forecaster" .claude/skills/ && echo "Installed .claude/skills/commercial-forecaster"
On Windows, or any OS with Node 20+
npx mcprush@latest skill add sakibmouin/commercial-forecaster

Windows PowerShell says 'running scripts is disabled on this system'? Run Set-ExecutionPolicy -Scope CurrentUser RemoteSigned once, or type npx.cmd instead of npx (codex.cmd, gemini.cmd, grok.cmd likewise). PowerShell 7 needs neither. Writes to .claude/skills/commercial-forecaster/ in the current project. For every project instead, run mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills && t=$(mktemp -d) && curl -fsSL -o "$t/bundle.tar.gz" https://mcprush.com/api/skills/sakibmouin-commercial-forecaster/bundle.tar.gz && tar -xzf "$t/bundle.tar.gz" -C "$t" && [ -d "$t/commercial-forecaster" ] && { [ ! -e ~/.claude/skills/commercial-forecaster ] || { mv ~/.claude/skills/commercial-forecaster "$t/.previous" && echo "Previous copy moved to $t/.previous"; }; } && mv "$t/commercial-forecaster" ~/.claude/skills/ && echo "Installed ~/.claude/skills/commercial-forecaster" (macOS, Linux) — or add --global to the npx line. The curl line replaces .claude/skills/commercial-forecaster/ only after the download succeeds, so files left there by another skill of the same name, or by an older release, do not mix in. A copy already there is moved aside, not deleted, and the line prints where.

Which clients pick it up on their own

A skill is a folder of text. Most of these read a skills folder and pick it up without being told; the rest take the same folder another way — an upload in the app, a parameter on an API call — and then choose it by its description just the same.

Claude Code.claude/skills/
Claude DesktopCustomize › Skills
ChatGPTSkills › Create › Upload
Cursor.cursor/skills/
VS Code.github/skills/
Codex CLI.agents/skills/
Gemini CLI.gemini/skills/
Grok Build.grok/skills/
Microsoft CopilotSkills › Upload a skill
PerplexityComputer › Skills › Upload a skill
DeepSeek Harness.dsh/skills/
Zed.agents/skills/
Devin Desktop.devin/skills/
Windsurf (legacy).windsurf/skills/
OpenAI Agents SDKInstructions or sandbox Skills
HTTP / APIa request parameter
This release
Version2.8.0
Publishedno release date on file
PriceFree
Referencesakibmouin/commercial-forecaster

Versions

v2.8.0 is what is on the shelf; no release here carries a date. Instructions change more often than APIs do — a skill can be rewritten entirely without anything it depends on moving.

v2.8.0
  • No earlier releases have been published to the marketplace.
Pinning

The install command always fetches the release that is current the day you run it — v2.8.0 today — and cannot ask for an earlier one. The copy on your disk does not change until you run it again.

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